What should be included in risk estimates to be credible?

To ensure that risk estimates are credible, it's essential to include a comprehensive range of information that supports the assessment. This information encompasses related historical data, which provides context and backing for the risk estimates. Historical data can aid in identifying trends and patterns that may inform current risk assessments.

In addition, a clear rationale is crucial as it lays out the reasoning behind the estimates, helping stakeholders understand the logic and thought processes involved in the assessment. This transparency enhances the credibility of the risk estimates.

Moreover, outlining assumptions and caveats is vital as they highlight the conditions under which the risk estimates are valid. This consideration informs stakeholders about potential limitations and uncertainties, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of the risk involved.

Combining all these elements—historical data, clear rationale, and the acknowledgment of assumptions and caveats—provides a strong foundation for making credible risk estimates that stakeholders can trust.